The global carbon credit market is set to grow at least fivefold by 2030 after a period of stagnation, according to projections by data and research provider MSCI. The market remained flat at US$1.4 billion in 2024, below a peak of US$1.7 billion in 2022, due to average spot prices falling by 20% and 180 MtCO2e of credits being retired – meaning they were permanently removed from the market. “This chill persisted despite increasing momentum on improving the integrity of carbon projects and further growth in the number of corporations announcing targets for their net emissions,” MSCI noted, pointing out that 2,732 companies had a new climate target validated by the Science Based Targets initiative in 2024, a 65% increase on the previous year. However, MSCI Carbon Markets’ latest modelling suggests that the global carbon credit market could rise in value to at least US$7 billion – up to as much as US$35 billion – by 2030. By 2050, this could increase to between US$45 billion to US$250 billion, MSCI said. “Sources of demand include voluntary corporate action (from companies making a net zero or carbon neutrality claim), the CORSIA market for international aviation, the potential use of carbon credits within compliance markets and the use of carbon credits by governments as part of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement,” the firm noted. The mix of carbon credits is also expected to evolve, with around two-thirds of the value by 2050 being in carbon removal credits. “Even more eye-catching is likely to be the growth of ‘engineered’ removal credits, such as from projects that capture CO2 directly from the air or that trap carbon in the soil through biochar,” MSCI said, predicting these alone could reach US$42 billion by the mid-century.
